Property Market Update: June 2024

Welcome to the June edition of the Property Market Report! We've collated information from experts from across the UK to provide you with a comprehensive view of the current market.

It seems that house prices have continued to stabilise into the summer. Both Halifax and property portal Zoopla reported minimal changes in their monthly estimates, with fluctuations of just 0.1% in either direction.

Our analysis of property portal data suggests a 12.87% increase in properties for sale in May compared to the same period last year. Although turnover has fallen slightly by 5%, the housing market seems healthy, with a strong appetite for new homes.

Our data also suggests that the average time for a sale to be agreed (SSTC) has decreased to 8 weeks (58 days), despite some turbulence over the past months. This matches the lows observed in May of last year.

Mortgage prices have remained largely unchanged since last month, with average rates fluctuating between 5% and 6%. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on the 20th of June to review the Bank’s base rate.

Lastly, we look at the upcoming general election - If you’re looking to sell in the next couple of the weeks, will the election impact your sale?

House prices continue to stabilise

According to the latest data, average house prices have remained stable over the last few months:

• Halifax reported a monthly increase of just +0.1% in April (£288,959)
• Zoopla reported a monthly decrease of just -0.1% in April (£264,300)
• Nationwide reported a modest +0.4% increase in May (£264,249).

*Please note that banks, building societies, and property indexes often measure house prices with a delay of several months behind the current month.

While downward pressure continues on house prices in southern coastal cities (areas which saw huge demand during the pandemic), areas like the North West of England are seeing the strongest growth, with house prices up by 3.3% pa (£231,599) according to Zoopla.

Supply outpaces demand, giving buyers more choice

Despite the numerous pressures on buyers – such as higher rent, rising interest rates, increased cost of living, and soaring energy bills and Council Tax - market activity continues to improve. There is a stronger supply of homes for sale and more sales being agreed upon.

Our analysis of property portal data suggests that there were 12.87% (78,808) more properties for sale in May than the same period last year. This aligns with Zoopla’s report, suggesting that there is £230 billion worth of housing on the market, 25% more than a year ago. While turnover has fallen slightly (-5%), we’re clearly in a healthy market with a consistent appetite for new homes.

8 weeks to achieve a sale, but 22 weeks to complete

Our analysis of the latest market figures show that it’s currently taking the average homeseller 8 weeks (58 days) to achieve a sale (SSTC). This is the lowest sale time seen in 2024 and it matches the lows observed in May of last year.

Despite these positive indicators, Rightmove suggests that it still takes, on average, an additional 22 weeks (154 days) after agreeing a sale to progress to legal completion. Property chains remain a massive stumbling block for transactions in this country, and current issues in the economy are no doubt prolonging them.

Interest rates - will they come down in June?

Rhiannon Philips (Moneyfactscompare.co.uk) reports that average mortgage rates are higher than they were one year ago. The average two-year fix at 90% LTV has risen from 5.66% at the start of June 2023 to 6.14% at the end of May 2024. Likewise, the average five-year fix at the same LTV rose from 5.23% to 5.59% in the same period.

On the whole, mortgage prices have remained largely unchanged since last month, with average rates fluctuating between 5% and 6%.

Fiscal-minded homeowners will be closely watching the Bank of England’s upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on June 20th. There are indications that the BOE will adjust the base rate when inflation reaches their target of 2%.

What the Bank of England’s base rate means for your mortgage

Most banks and building societies adjust their mortgage rates in accordance with the Bank of England’s base rate. When it goes up, interest rates follow suit, and when it goes down, interest rates decrease as well.

While a rate cut could occur this month, it seems likely that the base rate will remain unchanged until at least the following MPC meeting in August. Despite pressure from leading economists, the BOE has made clear its intent to curb rising inflation before considering a reduction in the base rate.

We’ll let you know what the Bank of England decides the moment they announce their decision, as well as its implications for your mortgage.

General Election - will it impact home sales?

Last but not least, the Conservative government has announced that a General Election will be held on July 4th. With weeks of campaigning and heavy news coverage ahead, some homesellers are rightfully wondering whether such a big political event will impact their sales.

The good news is that the housing market is not typically impacted by the timing of elections. If you’re thinking of moving home, an election usually doesn’t factor into your decision-making.

But while the election itself may not directly affect home sales, first-time buyers, landlords, businesses, and developers are keen to see property supply increase. How will the political parties address this during their campaigns and in their policies? Their decisions could have a more indirect but potentially significant impact on the housing market for decades to come.