Homebuyer demand levels down in Q3

Fatima Bukhari

Writer & Researcher

1. Where are the current hotspots?
2. Annual change
3. ‘Red hot market conditions have started to cool’ - GetAgent CEO Colby Short

4. Data and methodlogy

The Homebuyer Hotspots Demand Index (HDI) has found that buyer demand levels are declining in the third quarter of 2022. This is a result of economic pressures and the increased cost of borrowing, which may be leaving individuals to reevaluate their goals.

Our HDI monitors home buyer demand across England every quarter. Current demand is based on the proportion of stock listed as already sold (subject to contract or under offer) as a percentage of all stock listed for sale. For example, if 50 out of 100 homes listed for sale are sold, the demand score would be 50%.

The most recent index showcases that across England, buyer demand is currently at 57%, marking a -5% decline since Q2 2022 and a -7% decline since this time last year. This suggests that the long-lasting pandemic market boom might finally be withering out under the pressure of economic hardship.

Where are the current hotspots?

The nation's strongest sales demand hotspot is currently the City of Bristol, sitting at 74%. This is -5% lower than Q2 of this year, but 7% higher than Q2 2021.

Another sales demand hotspot is Hampshire, which currently sits at 65% while Northamptonshire, Bath & North East Somerset, Gloucester, Wiltshire, and West Sussex are all reporting Q3 demand levels of 64%.

Annual change

Regarding annual change, the worst hit locations are Cornwall (-19%), Herefordshire (-15%), and Lincolnshire (-14%).

However, only three regions of England are reporting positive annual demand growth. These include the City of Bristol (7%), the City of London (4%), and Greater London (1%).

Lastly, for quarterly changes, the only location to report positive growth is the City of London which is up by 1%, while all other regions have experienced a drop in demand. The highest drops are in Worcestershire, Cornwall, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire, and Bedfordshire, with a -8% decline in demand.

‘Red hot market conditions have started to cool’ - GetAgent CEO Colby Short

“The property market has been awash with buyer activity for some time now, with low rates of interest and various other incentives, such as the stamp duty holiday, ensuring that demand for homes has been unwavered.

However, our latest index suggests that these red hot market conditions have started to cool under the significant weight of economic difficulty coupled with a very real cost of living crisis.

We’re yet to see what effect Liz Truss’s new wave of stamp duty tax breaks is going to have on the market. There is a chance the measures will, once again, fuel a market boom. And while it’s unlikely that the boom will be as big as it was during the SDLT holiday, the tax relief might be enough to persuade some people to pursue their homebuying aspirations despite the current economic climate.

That said, we simply can’t ignore the fact that many lenders have already started to withdrawn some product offerings in anticipation of further interest rate hikes and this will undoubtedly stifle the level of buyer activity seen across the market for the foreseeable future.”

Data and methodlogy

Table shows homebuyer demand in England for Q3 2022, alongside the quarterly and annual % change, sorted by highest current demand

Location	Q3 2022 Demand %	Q change	Annual change
City of Bristol	74%	-5%	7%
Hampshire	65%	-4%	-7%
Northamptonshire	64%	-8%	-11%
Bath and North East Somerset	64%	-6%	-5%
Gloucestershire	64%	-6%	-8%
Wiltshire	64%	-6%	-10%
West Sussex	64%	-5%	-9%
Suffolk	63%	-5%	-11%
South Yorkshire	63%	-5%	-8%
Somerset	62%	-6%	-11%
Dorset	62%	-7%	-12%
Essex	61%	-6%	-10%
Cheshire	61%	-7%	-8%
Bedfordshire	61%	-8%	-9%
Warwickshire	61%	-5%	-5%
Worcestershire	61%	-8%	-11%
Tyne and Wear	61%	-4%	-2%
Norfolk	61%	-6%	-12%
West Midlands (county)	61%	-6%	-5%
West Yorkshire	60%	-6%	-8%
Nottinghamshire	60%	-7%	-8%
Cambridgeshire	60%	-5%	-8%
Staffordshire	60%	-5%	-10%
Rutland	60%	-5%	-11%
Derbyshire	60%	-6%	-9%
Berkshire	60%	-3%	-2%
East Sussex	60%	-6%	-11%
Greater Manchester	60%	-6%	-7%
Surrey	59%	-4%	-4%
Buckinghamshire	59%	-6%	-6%
Devon	59%	-7%	-13%
Hertfordshire	59%	-6%	-6%
North Yorkshire	58%	-7%	-9%
Shropshire	57%	-6%	-8%
Kent	57%	-7%	-9%
Northumberland	57%	-4%	-6%
Leicestershire	56%	-8%	-9%
Durham	56%	-5%	-5%
East Riding of Yorkshire	55%	-6%	-9%
Merseyside	55%	-6%	-8%
Oxfordshire	55%	-4%	-3%
Cumbria	55%	-4%	-8%
Lancashire	54%	-6%	-9%
Isle of Wight	54%	-7%	-14%
Herefordshire	54%	-6%	-15%
Cornwall	53%	-8%	-19%
Lincolnshire	51%	-7%	-14%
Greater London	45%	-3%	1%
City of London	26%	1%	4%
England	57%	-5%	-7%