Housing delivery massively inconsistent throughout the nation

The nation's housing delivery system is out of kilter. This is especially true when it comes to the level of homes required in a given area versus the reality of those actually delivered.

We analysed Gov.UK. data from the Housing Delivery Test 2021, a yearly measurement that focuses on the need for housing in a specific area. We then looked at how many additional dwellings were actually delivered.

Our research shows that the number of additional dwellings delivered has exceeded the requirement in recent years. In fact, since 2018/19, Gov.UK. data suggests that while 770,056 homes were delivered, only 620,899 were actually needed. As a result, there is now a high delivery rate of 124% - much higher than what is required.

Which region is the most oversaturated?

Regions across the nation differ in the amount of homes required and how much of them are actually delivered. For example, the North West has seen the largest level of over delivery (175%), followed by the North East (173%) and West Midlands (147%).

Even in the capital there is an oversupply of dwellings - with 117,554 additional houses having been created since 2018/19. These dwellings now equate to 103% of the 133,910 forecast required, again exceeding demand.

However, while the supply of dwellings may portray a story of success, our analysis at a more granular level reveals a market that is massively out of kilter. For example, an enormous 1,879 dwellings were delivered in Oxford in 2018/19, when in fact the government forecast only needed 88. As a result, there is now a whopping 2,126% rate of over supply.

In Richmond, additional dwellings delivered equal to 1,620% of the forecasted requirement. Other areas include Copeland (931%), Tamworth (471%), as well as Redcar and Cleveland (453%) which are amongst some of the most oversaturated markets.

Areas with the lowest rate of housing deliveries

While many regions in the UK are oversaturated, other areas are seen to have low deliveries of dwellings. The government forecast for new homes in Southend has totalled 3,041 since 2018/19, yet only 947 (31%) have actually been delivered. Other areas with low rates of housing delivery include Eastbourne (32%), Worthing (35%), Epping Forest (35%) and Epsom and Ewell (35%).

"Areas of property market are oversaturated by new homes" - GetAgent CEO Colby Short

“The nation has been in the grip of a housing crisis for many years now and this grip is only getting tighter, as house prices continue to climb to record highs, while the rate of new homes being delivered remains insufficient.

Given the government’s failures in addressing this crisis, it’s hardly surprising that their forecasted housing requirements are reserved, to say the least, and based on these forecasts, the nation is benefiting from a large degree of oversupply.

However, when you scratch beneath the surface, it’s abundantly clear that the delivery of additional homes from one area to the next is dangerously out of kilter. This is, no doubt, largely down to market manipulation from those who stand to profit from the creation of these additional dwellings.

By allowing housing delivery to be decided by profitability over need, some areas of the property market have been oversaturated by the delivery of new homes, while others remain very much left out in the cold.”

Data and methodology

Data sourced from Gov.UK

Housing requirement forecast based on the Gov Housing Delivery Test 2021